The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy, and the Future of American Power - Hardcover

For Caitlin, Griffin and Hannah MarieIntroduction (excerpt) Fate dealt me a fair hand. The prime of my career--fi rst as a reporter, thenas an editor and analyst of international affairs for the BBC, the Councilon Foreign Relations, and ultimately Roubini Global Economics--coincidedneatly with the apex of American infl uence in the world. As Europe's communistregimes tumbled, I witnessed and chronicled these events fi rsthand for RadioFree Europe / Radio Liberty, the US- funded "surrogate" broadcaster thenbased in Munich. A journalist by training and a historian by temperament, Iseized every opportunity to surf the wave of goodwill for the United States asit fl owed into the forgotten corners of southeastern Europe. Suddenly, wherean Iron Curtain so recently stood, the fl ash of an American passport openedall doors.That American dream, however, has since become a hypnotic trance. Wellbefore the 9/11 attacks, it was made clear to anyone paying close attention thatthe Cold War "victory" had imposed great burdens on the United States thatwould eventually threaten its place as the "sole remaining superpower." Evenafter terrorists killed thousands on that fateful summer day, the Americanpolitical establishment continued to base domestic and foreign policy decisionson the assumption that the United States was destined to tower in perpetuityover all other nations. This myopia has affl icted great powers in the past.The French Army in 1940, regarded at the time as the fi nest military force inthe world, crumbled before Hitler's blitzkrieg in a mere fi ve weeks. "We sufferedfrom an illness that is not peculiar to the French, the illness of havingbeen victorious [in World War I] and believing that we were very clever," saidGeneral Andre Beaufre, a member of the French high command. "Victory is avery dangerous opportunity."1The miscalculations that led to war in Iraq and the reckless policies thatnearly drove the entire global fi nancial system over a cliff should have had asobering effect. Yet some Americans feel that the United States is still entitledto a "fi rst among equals" place in the twenty- fi rst- century sun. Most of therest of the world, not surprisingly, given recent history, is not so eager to lingermuch longer in its shade.This is not a book bent on predicting America's decline--the variablesentailed in such predictions encourage wildly dark scenarios that current factsdo not support. Nor is this a book written solely for Americans. Whether byfate or necessity, and oftentimes unwittingly and even unwillingly, much of theworld depends for its prosperity and stability on the economic performanceof the huge American economy and the ability of the US military to makegood on dozens of guarantees, spoken and unspoken, that sustain regionalbalances of power across the planet. America will remain powerful and relevantto global affairs for a generation or more, though its days as the world'sunrivaled economic and military giants have ended. To my American readers,understand that I have no intention of providing a pep talk. Making Americansfeel good about themselves or suggesting that some miraculous combinationof ingenuity and divine favor will keep their country at the top of the heapuntil the end of time is the job description of a politician--an occupation thatbends truths to fi t short- term goals and employs fl attery to engender support.If either screed is your desire, close the cover now. But if reality appeals toyou, this is the book to read. The Reckoning is just what the title suggests--an attempt to get a dead- eyed, unemotional fi x on American power and to positthe implications for the prosperity, security, and external guarantees that fl owfrom it. Whether you are a citizen of the great republic, an ally dependent uponits security guarantees, or a trading partner benefi ting from the global economicsystem that American power sustains, understanding your exposure tothese shifting dynamics is essential as America descends from the superpowerstratosphere back to earth. 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSA book like this, spanning many disciplines and the entire planet's past, present, and future concerns, demands the humility of someone able to ask the advice of others. To the extent that I am attacked or criticized for anything herein, the fault lies with me. Having said that, I am blessed with friends, former colleagues, and mentors who generously read drafts and provided guidance throughout the process, adding both wisdom and color to the fi nal product.First, I'd like to thank my agent, Leah Spiro, who helped shape the initial proposal, my editor at Palgrave Macmillan, Emily Carleton, for her enthusiastic support and guidance, her assistant, Laura Lancaster, and my intern, Salil Motianey, who graciously proofread early chapters and helped with footnotes and other thankless tasks.Among the many experts, practitioners, and simply smart people who offered feedback on various chapters were Frank Barbieri, Emily Field, Jeffrey Godbold, Andrew Nagorski, Jim Baldwin, and Douglas Varga, Kari Huus, my former BBC colleagues Richard Walker, Nick Childs, and Stephen Dalziel, Asia experts Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba of Roubini Global Economics, Dr. William Turcotte (Emeritus) of the U.S. Naval War College, my former Council on Foreign Relations colleagues Greg Bruno, Steven Cook, and Sebastian Mallaby, and Robert McMahon, with whom I have had the pleasure of working at three different stops along my career: The Associated Press,Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and CFR. For general friendship and advice, no one could have better friends than Suzanne Turcotte, Lynda Hammes, and Amer Nimr.Nouriel Roubini, founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics,and Christian Menegatti, his deputy and RGE's head of global research, deserve my special thanks for both friendship and their patience as I pestered them with fundamental questions about the global economy. I also owe a debtto the following people who have guided my career and provided support at key moments that kept my unconventional career on track: Bill Kovach, Stephen Engelberg, and David Binder during my early career at The New York Times; Bill McIlwain of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune; Merrill Brown, Brian Storm, and Bob Aglow at MSNBC; Richard Haass, Trish Dorff, Jim Lindsay, DavidKellogg, and Lisa Shields at CFR; and Gideon Rose of Foreign Affairs.Finally, to my parents--my Irish immigrant, USMC sergeant father, Edward M. Moran, who made all his four children do Saturday morning reports on random chapters of the World Book Encyclopedia, and, my mom, Marie, who uniquely never lost faith in me. I felt you with me every step of the way, mom, and miss you every day.-- MICHAEL MORAN